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caught by the trough that had been baroclinically enhancing it and sheared badly, and ivan passed the ridge axis a couple of days before landfall and had a good while to spin down. on the forecast track katrina will be passing the ridge axis as it makes landfall, so by that token it would be very close to maximum intensity.
as of right now the subsidence entrainment should continue for the next day or so, peaking again late today. after that (sunday into monday) the environment should be very close to ideal for katrina to intensify. i wouldn't be surprised if katrina approaches or reaches category 5 at some point on sunday.
going to hang tight at the ms/al border. that's what i should have been doing all along. going to stick w/ a strong 3 because it's a compromise between original ideas and what i'd forecast now.
HF 1242z27august

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Good luck. I'm enough inland that I would not leave even if it were a Cat 5 headed straight for me, but I wouldn't advise most people in the path to do that. I'll go along with your "now" forecast based upon what I'm seeing as far as intensity, despite the fact that Opal/Ivan/Dennis weakened as it came onshore. Near or slghtly above Cat 5 threshhold seems realistic right now with the deepening trend.
my now would be a low end 4. i'm playing a little weakening into the odds, because hurricanes almost never hit at full power. the strong 3 is a compromise. since you're in okaloosa i wouldn't worry too terribly much. unless you're in a mobile home and can animatedly describe 'tar-naders' and ufos to the local news in the worst of southern pidgin, you should be OK. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 08:59 AM)

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