Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I am in a surge zone (potentially, exposure to the SW, on the bay - not the gulf) and stayed for both Ivan and Dennis.

Dennis didn't even get much water in the yard. Ivan threatened to flood the house, but we were home and able to stop it. Another 3-4" of water rise and all our flooring would have been destroyed, along with quite a bit of wallboard damage. The Sawzall would have gotten a LOT of use in that instance.

A storm that comes in and hooks east right over us is the worst possible scenario, which is what we got with Ivan.

As of right now I don't see the movement that causes me to want out right now.

I believe the discussion of a northward movement is overblown. I just got done looking at the GOES 12 hour loops, VIS, IR and WV, and what I saw looked like the eyewall replacement cycle.

Here's the projected short-range US forecast maps. (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx.shtml] Note the 24, 36 and 48 hour expected weather maps.

By 6:00 AM tomorrow the trough is eroding, and by noon it is lifting out. If that verifies, then Katrina does not go east, unless it gets underneath it, which would require that it get on an eastward path in the next 12 hours so that it can stay under the trough.

I don't see that happening.

At 48 hours, the ridge (more of a hill than a ridge, really

) that is to the west is forecast to back west.

Between those two points you've got a weakness - a corridor - into which Katrina is heading.

This is what it appears the models are "seeing", and it looks good to me. There is some argument for a move to the west or east - but I believe these are small deviations, not large ones.

I'm boarded up but at this point not intending to leave. If I change my mind, it will be tomorrow late in the afternoon or evening, and will likely head east.

My "metric" is when Katrina marks north of 25 Latitude. The current projected path puts that happening at about midnight. We already got through the 4:00 CDT advisory without it happening, which was my "oh no, it may come right here" warning point. If its at or below 25N at the 10PM advisory, then that will increase my confidence in the projected paths the models are giving us. So long as we're seeing WNW - and not NW - by the AM I think we're far enough east here to get lots of rain and some wind, plus a moderate surge risk - but not the punishment we got with Ivan.

I expect that by the 11:00 AM advisory tomorrow we'll know if the underlying features on the board are verifying or not, and there will still be plenty of time to make final preparations and split if that's warranted.

So for now, I'm standing pat, as I don't see the players on the board that bring this beast east of the MS/AL state line.

Stay tuned, of course.... and take this for whatever you believe it worth - I can be just as wrong as anyone else, as came very close to being proved with Katrina dipping SW and nearly staying offshore Miami!

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