Recurvature Model Bias - FLHurricane.com

Your observations are correct and there has been a left bias in the models as there were last year too. It is important that everybody understand despite what a series of satellite images show, the NHC does not radically jump from previous reasoning unless forced to do so, such was the case yesterday when a radical revision was made to the forecast track of a land fall near Panama City to near Houma, LA. The public reads these discussions just like we do and NHC knows that, thus continuity prevails unless reasoning and data points them in another direction opting for subtle adjustments whenever possible. The storm has begun it's turn to the right, and like you said, what isn't known whether it will bend all the way around and take a NE heading prior to landfall and if that shortwave is as strong as they say it is, it can't be ruled out.

New Orleans is vulnerable to a storm approaching from this angle and any deviation to the east exaberates the situation considerably. Strong east and southeast winds will pull water into Lake Ponchatrain and as the center goes by, winds come around and push it into the city over the sea wall and there is a scenario that could flood the entire city given on track trajectory.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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