Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Hi everyone. Sorry if this post is in the wrong forum or repetitive of what others have posted - I just got power, and hence internet, for the first time in a little more than 2 days so I haven't kept up to speed with what's been posted.

I realize the second landfall of Katrina is a much more important issue, but if anyone hasn't gotten firsthand information re: the first landfall, my house was a few to ten miles SE of the eye, just south of South Miami, and after driving around to survey damage today I see that I was pretty much in, or close to, the worst swath damage-wise. Thursday was actually a very nice, balmy day, until I lost power at around 530, then things went downhill quickly. Had pretty typical strong TS to CAT 1 conditions for 5 or 6 hours - probably sustained winds around 70-75 mph, gusts into the 80's or low 90's - then another 3-6 hours of moderate TS conditions (and intermittent TS-strength squalls after that). Lots of trees, signs, portions of fences down; very little structural damage - shingles off here and there, and some problems caused by falling trees, but not structural damage caused purely by the wind, as opposed to by impacts from objects carried by the wind. Plenty of impassable roads, and very few businesses & homes in the area had power this afternoon. (Some odd experiences with trying to shop: e.g., CVS letting in 1 customer at a time; giving me a cart, a light, and a pen to write down the prices of things I picked out; wandering through the dark store alone, with 4 employees up front and a line of people outside waiting for me to finish my trek through the store; only cash transactions everywhere, with calculators and wads of bills - no change provided - the norm.) Hot as anything, of course, although we (unfortunately) benefited from Katrina's expansion today with a reprieve from from the heat because of the re-arrival of her outer clouds/bands this evening.

Anyway, power is back in my neighborhood, and I believe FPL (with the much-appreciated help of out-of-state companies, including many employees from N.C.) is aiming to restore 90% of Miami-Dade residents' power by Tuesday and 100% by Friday.

What amazed me the most about this storm was how most of the local mets downplayed it even into Thursday evening, despite the fact we were very much within the hurricane warning area (I heard news quotes such as "This is a tropical storm and we get plenty of those in South Florida, so there's no need to prepare for this one," and "This isn't going to be more than a minor rain event for us" as late as Thursday afternoon), how shocked many residents seem to be by the storm we got (which was almost exactly the stoorm that was predicted, or at least the one we were told we had a decent chance of getting; even the NWS forecast for our area on Thursday and Friday predicted up to 85 mph winds, which was close); and how many locals claim this was stronger than a CAT 1 when it passed through S. Fla. (Despite all the downed trees and power lines, the minimal structural damage certainly tells the story of a minimal CAT 1.)

For me, it's yet another lesson that even in Miami, where we are no strangers to tropical systems, no matter how many times we go through this drill, no matter how well the NHC forecasts a storm and how explicit the NHC's warnings are, and no matter how recently we seem to have experienced similar "suprises" that really were right in line with the NHC's forecasts (e.g., Irene 1999), for some reason the message does not make it to, or sufficiently effect, a large portion of the public. I suppose this is a problem the NHC continually deals with. Is it a problem of translation when interpreted through local mets? People's need to have concrete answers (will it hit or not?) when no such answers can be given?

Whatever factors are going into those issues, nobody seems to have been able to figure them out, least of all me.

Anyway, after 2 sweaty, uncomfortable days, my wife, baby, and I are immensely enjoying the a/c.

I wish everyone in Katrina's path luck. We got just a taste, and I hope you all evacuate so you don't experience the real deal.

-Brad

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