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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 908 MB
      Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM

Quote:

I hesitate to drop the "c" bomb, but this thing is looking more and more like Camille. She bottomed out at 905 mb and hit 909 mb, although she was a bit smaller than KAT. What we have to concentrate on now is on factors, hopefully, that will ratchet this monster down a bit. Any mods or other hurrigeeks have info about SSTs, wind shears, or dry air ahead of this storm?



Let's not look at any of those. The SST's will remain extremely favorable, shear looks low, and dry air shouldn't have much of an impact.

HOWEVER, the one thing that could knock this down a bit in damage: a landfall during an ERC. That might mean the different between a 155-170 mph cane at landfall and a 140-155 mph landfall. I think the northern central Gulf Coast is in for a really tragic and historical cane. But of those two options I see, I'd rather take the latter.

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* Category 5 Katrina Heads for the Coast Clark Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
. * * Water Temp Catmando   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Water Temp Psyber   Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Track .vs. forecast Genesis   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 AM
. * * countdown HanKFranK   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast hurricane expert   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast BTfromAZ   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast ShanaTX   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast JustMe   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast nate77   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast JustMe   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:18 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast heynow   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:16 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast mojorox   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:58 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Steve   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Mobile AL Hurricane Local Statement danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Steve   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Multi-Decadal Signal   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:26 AM
. * * CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! GLT   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Rasvar   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:58 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Disaster Master   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! errorcone   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Evac tips Rasvar   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Jeffmidtown   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! toemastergeneral   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Terra   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! susieq   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Trekman   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! twizted sizter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:11 AM
. * * No Evacuations?!?!? chase 22   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: No Evacuations?!?!? Wxwatcher2   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! TDW   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! tpratch   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:20 AM
. * * SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Dr Lyons Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* bn765   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model chase 22   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Effects of Katrina Southern4sure   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Effects of Katrina Clark   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Effects of Katrina MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Ricreig   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Forum Rules RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules collegemom   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! kissy   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:06 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:01 AM
. * * 908 MB Domino   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB KATFIVE   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Psyber   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:23 AM
. * * eyes LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:25 AM
. * * Re: eyes pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: eyes Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: eyes Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:29 AM
. * * Re: eyes CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: eyes jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: eyes Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: eyes pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: eyes susieq   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: eyes Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:36 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:04 AM
. * * Dropped to 908 MB WhitherWeather   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! ralphfl   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
. * * MB down to 910 WhitherWeather   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! DebbiePSL   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:53 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:52 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Forum Rules RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules stormchazer   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Todd Caldwell   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Todd Caldwell   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Daytonaman   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast berserkr   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast DebbiePSL   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast turkeyman   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast StormKrone   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast *DELETED* *DELETED* Multi-Decadal Signal   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:54 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:59 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Paulf   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast jaxmike   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Marianne   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:35 AM
. * * Thought Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:34 AM
. * * Lafayette, New Iberia and Acadiana danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Thought Update Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast LisaMaria65   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Clark   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:10 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:19 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Ricreig   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast ShanaTX   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast KATFIVE   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:31 AM

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