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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
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Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: SHIPS model
      Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 AM

Quote:

173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link


I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?



Intensity models are notoriously inaccurate. It could potentially hit 180-190+, too. I suspect it will not stay cat 5 for 48+ hours though... at least I hope, but Louisiana isn't exactly the Rocky Mountains. Look at what the Everglades did to Katrina - pretty much made her mad and out to seek revenge.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 5 Katrina Heads for the Coast Clark Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Water Temp Catmando   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Water Temp Psyber   Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Track .vs. forecast Genesis   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 AM
. * * countdown HanKFranK   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast hurricane expert   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast BTfromAZ   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast ShanaTX   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast JustMe   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast nate77   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast JustMe   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:18 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast heynow   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:16 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast mojorox   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:58 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Steve   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Mobile AL Hurricane Local Statement danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Steve   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Multi-Decadal Signal   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:26 AM
. * * CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! GLT   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Rasvar   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:58 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Disaster Master   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! errorcone   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Evac tips Rasvar   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Jeffmidtown   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! toemastergeneral   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Terra   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! susieq   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Trekman   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! twizted sizter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:11 AM
. * * No Evacuations?!?!? chase 22   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: No Evacuations?!?!? Wxwatcher2   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! TDW   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! tpratch   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:20 AM
. * * SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Dr Lyons Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* bn765   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model chase 22   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Effects of Katrina Southern4sure   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Effects of Katrina Clark   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Effects of Katrina MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: SHIPS model Ricreig   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! SirCane   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* javlin   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Forum Rules RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules collegemom   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! kissy   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:06 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:01 AM
. * * 908 MB Domino   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB KATFIVE   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Ron Basso   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Psyber   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:23 AM
. * * eyes LI Phil   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:25 AM
. * * Re: eyes pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: eyes Kevin   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Re: eyes Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:29 AM
. * * Re: eyes CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: eyes jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: eyes Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: eyes pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: eyes susieq   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: eyes Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:36 AM
. * * Re: 908 MB Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:04 AM
. * * Dropped to 908 MB WhitherWeather   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! ralphfl   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
. * * MB down to 910 WhitherWeather   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! DebbiePSL   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:53 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! recmod   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:52 AM
. * * Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Forum Rules RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Forum Rules stormchazer   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Todd Caldwell   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Todd Caldwell   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Daytonaman   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast berserkr   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast DebbiePSL   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast turkeyman   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast StormKrone   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast pcola   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast *DELETED* *DELETED* Multi-Decadal Signal   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Hugh   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:54 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:59 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Paulf   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast jaxmike   Sun Aug 28 2005 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Marianne   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2005 04:35 AM
. * * Thought Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:34 AM
. * * Lafayette, New Iberia and Acadiana danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Thought Update Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast LisaMaria65   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Clark   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:07 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast jr928   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:10 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 06:19 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Ricreig   Sun Aug 28 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast ShanaTX   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Bloodstar   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast KATFIVE   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast Margie   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 28 2005 02:31 AM

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