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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 125

Track .vs. forecast
Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 AM

Guys and gals, she's RIGHT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.

There were two vortex fixes just north of track, but the trend is right on the line. Last fix was slightly WEST of the forecast track.

Don't fixate on the exact center - with a 30nm diameter eye, being off 30nm won't help you a bit!

Dr. Lyons has a point, BUT that trough is not very vigorous down there. Look at the weather maps and WV loops - the strength in that trough IS lifting out NE, as was forecast. Look at the forecast maps for the next 24 hours; there's a pronounced weakness right north of NO - which is exactly where the NHC has forecast the storm to head.

Whether it jogs east or west of there a bit is not going to be material with a storm of this size and power, and betting on an east - or west - wobble or jog in the path is VERY ill-advised.

I'm expecting near-hurricane-force winds here in Niceville, and a tidal surge of somewhere around 4' in the bay - 6-10' directly on the gulf. Add to that wave impact, which will be considerable for gulf-front exposures.

Please do not be complacent or think that someone's projections of a slight eastward change in track means you're "ok" if you're on the western edge of the envelope! By the same token this storm could be trouble all the way over to Destin - you can bet I'm watching it VERY closely, as that's where we are!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Category 5 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Clark	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 AM
Water Temp	Catmando	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:39 AM
Re: Water Temp	Psyber	Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM
Administrative Note	Ed Dunham	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
Track .vs. forecast	Genesis	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 AM
countdown	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:27 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	hurricane expert	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	BTfromAZ	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:41 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	ShanaTX	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	JustMe	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	nate77	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Bloodstar	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:06 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	JustMe	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:18 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:24 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	heynow	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:55 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:16 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	mojorox	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:58 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:36 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:02 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Bloodstar	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:07 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:42 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Bloodstar	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Steve	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:17 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:22 AM
Mobile AL Hurricane Local Statement	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:28 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Steve	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:21 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:43 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	SirCane	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:57 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	SirCane	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:59 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Multi-Decadal Signal	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:26 AM
CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	recmod	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:27 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	GLT	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:20 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Rasvar	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	SirCane	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:58 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Disaster Master	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	errorcone	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	LI Phil	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:09 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:50 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:54 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:52 AM
Evac tips	Rasvar	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Jeffmidtown	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	toemastergeneral	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:18 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Terra	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:43 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:56 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:03 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	susieq	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Trekman	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:10 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	twizted sizter	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:09 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:11 AM
No Evacuations?!?!?	chase 22	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
Re: No Evacuations?!?!?	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	TDW	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	tpratch	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:21 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	javlin	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:20 AM
SHIPS model	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:23 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 AM
Re: SHIPS model	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:34 AM
Re: Dr Lyons	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:27 AM
Re: SHIPS model	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:30 AM
Re: SHIPS model Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	bn765	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:28 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:31 AM
Re: SHIPS model	javlin	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:38 AM
Re: SHIPS model	chase 22	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:45 AM
Re: SHIPS model	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:41 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:01 AM
Re: SHIPS model	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:07 AM
Effects of Katrina	Southern4sure	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM
Re: Effects of Katrina	Clark	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:55 AM
Re: Effects of Katrina	MikeC	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:58 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:12 AM
Re: SHIPS model	Ricreig	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:47 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	SirCane	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:58 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:01 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:00 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:02 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:19 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	javlin	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:26 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	javlin	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:36 AM
Forum Rules	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Forum Rules	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Forum Rules	collegemom	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:15 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 28 2005 09:18 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:11 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	recmod	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	kissy	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:06 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:08 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:01 AM
908 MB	Domino	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
Re: 908 MB	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:07 AM
Re: 908 MB	KATFIVE	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
Re: 908 MB	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
Re: 908 MB	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:40 AM
Re: 908 MB	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:46 AM
Re: 908 MB	Psyber	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:44 AM
Re: 908 MB	LI Phil	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:19 AM
Re: 908 MB	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:23 AM
eyes	LI Phil	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:25 AM
Re: eyes	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
Re: eyes	Kevin	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM
Re: eyes	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:29 AM
Re: eyes	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:34 AM
Re: eyes	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:38 AM
Re: eyes	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
Re: eyes	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:37 AM
Re: eyes	susieq	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:33 AM
Re: eyes	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:36 AM
Re: 908 MB	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:04 AM
Dropped to 908 MB	WhitherWeather	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	ralphfl	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
MB down to 910	WhitherWeather	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	DebbiePSL	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:53 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:12 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	recmod	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:52 AM
Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:37 AM
Forum Rules	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:13 AM
Re: Forum Rules	stormchazer	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:20 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Todd Caldwell	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Todd Caldwell	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:19 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Daytonaman	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:43 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	berserkr	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:32 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:45 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:49 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:21 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 07:25 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	DebbiePSL	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	turkeyman	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:28 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:02 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	StormKrone	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	pcola	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:33 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:31 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast DELETED DELETED	Multi-Decadal Signal	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:38 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Hugh	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:42 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:54 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:59 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Paulf	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	jaxmike	Sun Aug 28 2005 05:37 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Marianne	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:23 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 28 2005 04:35 AM
Thought Update	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:34 AM
Lafayette, New Iberia and Acadiana	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:44 AM
Re: Thought Update	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:39 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	LisaMaria65	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Clark	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:07 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	jr928	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:10 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 06:19 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Ricreig	Sun Aug 28 2005 10:36 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:23 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	ShanaTX	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:02 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 03:08 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Bloodstar	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:52 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	KATFIVE	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	Margie	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	danielw	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:32 AM
Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 28 2005 02:31 AM

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