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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ron Basso
Storm Tracker

Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL

Re: SE FL Circulation
Mon Sep 05 2005 12:44 PM

The long range Miami RAD clearly shows a circulation spinning about 100 miles east. Convection appears to be growing and the system is stationary at the moment. Global models are still split with the 00Z NOGAPs & UKMET taking the system slowly up the east coast of FL. The FSUmm5 also does this too. All of the models that run the low pressure up the coast do so very slowly - on the order of 3 to 5 days to go from SE FL to near JAX due to a massive high pressure system centered off the east coast. The other camp of models are the 06Z GFS, 00Z GFDL, and 00Z CMC which either takes the system W-NW across the peninsula into the GOM or more northward into the north-central part of the peninsula. Climatology would argue for an up the coast scenario but with the massive high pressure system slow to give way (HPC predicting rather strong zonal flow across eastern US with a deep trough along the NW US), the high looks to simply elongate east-west. Latest HPC discussion indicates that eastern High may actually strengthen:

OVER THE ERN STATES...MASSIVE SUMMERY RIDGE WILL HOLD
SWAY...WITH THE EC BUILDING HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR AS
EARLY AS DAY 5.

With the eastern High blocking any significant movement up the coast, I tend to think the latest 06Z GFS run is about right with a slow progression W-NW across the peninsula eventually into the GOM. The 00Z GFDL is a truely frightening scenario taking the storm into the GOM, strengtening it into a 120 kt hurricane and bringing that storm into NO in 5 days. For FL, perhaps a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall quickly weakening to a TD over the peninsula - lots of rain though with a slow movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	Ed Dunham	Mon Sep 05 2005 12:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	hurricane expert	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:10 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	Steve H1	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	weatherwatcher2	Mon Sep 05 2005 07:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	weatherwatcher2	Mon Sep 05 2005 07:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	VolusiaMike	Mon Sep 05 2005 07:54 PM
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Re: Local Mets. take	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 05 2005 08:33 PM
Re: Local Mets. take	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 08:36 PM
New TD 15	Lisa NC	Mon Sep 05 2005 08:29 PM
Re: New TD 15	Steve H1	Mon Sep 05 2005 08:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	DebbiePSL	Mon Sep 05 2005 07:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 07:10 PM
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Re: Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone?	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits	jusforsean	Sun Sep 04 2005 03:24 PM
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Re: spin starting??	stormchazer	Sun Sep 04 2005 04:19 PM
Re: spin starting??	Ryan	Sun Sep 04 2005 06:39 PM
Re: spin starting??	Reaper	Sun Sep 04 2005 07:45 PM
Re: spin starting??	h2ocean	Sun Sep 04 2005 07:57 PM
Re: spin starting??	Rich B	Sun Sep 04 2005 09:09 PM
Re: spin starting??	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 04 2005 09:59 PM
Re: spin starting??	DebbiePSL	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:00 AM
Re: spin starting??	Sheeper	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:11 AM
Re: spin starting??	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:10 AM
Re: spin starting??	DebbiePSL	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:27 AM
Re: spin starting??	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:36 AM
Re: spin starting??	Genesis	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:10 AM
Re: spin starting??	Lysis	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:06 AM
Re: spin starting??	SkeetoBite	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:18 AM
Re: spin starting??	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:15 AM
Re: spin starting??	jlauderdal	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:35 AM
Re: spin starting??	SkeetoBite	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:32 AM
"Anular" Hurricane	JulieTampa	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:32 AM
Re: "Anular" Hurricane	Margie	Mon Sep 05 2005 06:27 AM
Re: SE FL Circulation	Ron Basso	Mon Sep 05 2005 12:44 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	Black Pearl	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:24 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:45 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	zacros	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:55 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:55 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:58 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:59 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:02 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:22 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	CocoCrk	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:55 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	h2ocean	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:26 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	B.C.Francis	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:48 PM
94L, GFDL	Ryan	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:51 PM
Re: 94L, GFDL	Hugh	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:59 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	Jekyhe904	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:22 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	NewWatcher	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:05 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:14 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	weatherwatcher2	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:21 PM
Re: SE FL Circulation	LoisCane	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:45 PM
Re: "Anular" Hurricane	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:05 AM
Re: "Anular" Hurricane	SkeetoBite	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:46 AM
Re: "Anular" Hurricane	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 05 2005 02:38 AM
plague of invests	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:23 AM
Re: plague of invests	Ryan	Mon Sep 05 2005 03:33 AM
Re: plague of invests Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Ryan	Mon Sep 05 2005 04:32 AM
Re: plague of invests	weatherwatcher2	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:13 AM
Re: plague of invests	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 05 2005 05:46 AM
Re: plague of invests	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 12:32 PM
Re: plague of invests	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 05 2005 01:21 PM
Closest to home	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Sep 04 2005 01:50 PM
Re: Closest to home	Genesis	Sun Sep 04 2005 03:10 PM

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