Can someone put it into english for me. It mentions going with the NOGAPS, however, the ony NG I can find has it going east. HPC says it will go west.
NO MATTER FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST WL FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP CYC MOTION... USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...SO THE MANUAL PROGS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO OUR COORDINATED POINTS FROM YESTERDAY AT 16Z. THE CAN/UKMET/NCEP ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS ARE CLOSEST TO THE 05/12Z GFS AND MOST RECENT NOGAPS... WHICH NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.
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