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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ophelia....
      Tue Sep 06 2005 05:43 PM

alright. getting our o-storm probably on september 6th/7th. that's nuts, in case anyone is wondering.
forecast track makes some sense... more sense than the earlier progs across the state. deeper nate to the east may tug it, stronger beta advection due to a stronger system should keep it from whisking across florida. other things will dictate when/how it makes landfall. at some point the storm will be close enough to the coast that the asymmetric windfield should start to wobble it onshore.... probably up near the northern coast of florida. probably be around low-end hurricane strength at the time. the ridge to the north is forecast to break down, but there won't be a sharp shortwave to capture it, just a flat based trough sliding by to the north around the weekend. at this point shear may decouple the storm and a piece will jet westward, or it may just drift east and offshore. heights are supposed to rise in the wake, so ophelia may end up doing a loop and double landfall. due to the nature of the ridge breakdown and resurgence on the models, i'd expect that more than a sharp recurvature. whether it can regenerate offshore would be another issue altogether.. probably just stay steady-state. regardless i'm thinking this storm will be around all week, all weekend, into next week. probably tons or rain between say vero and brunswick ga.
nate may get a little stronger than progged... and the forecast track is very close to bermuda. they may take their hardest lick since fabian in 2003. doesn't look like nate will bother anyone else.
maria is weakening and on the way out... 48-72 hrs or so it should be losing tropical characteristics.
two waves at low latitudes worth mention.. one nearing 35w, the other is old 92L near 62w. the 35w wave has a large envelope and broad surface low, with scattered convection. it's already feeling southerly shear ahead of the large trough near 50w. this trough should be splitting at some point... so there's a chance enough of a feature will make it through to develop something, but looking improbable at this point. old 92L still has a broad turning near 16/63, but has only spotty convection and is in a dry environment.. some of its energy is propagating northward in maria/nate's direction. whatever is left in the western caribbean will be worth watching late in the week, but not a lot should make it.
the gulf is the last place to eyeball. the upper trough/low over the central gulf is diving sw and should induce some ridging aloft over the surface trough it has already generated from the boc up to the central part. some of the globals are showing a weak surface feature in this area... dependent on how concentrated convection remains, it may be trying to stew up as it migrates generally towards texas by the end of the week.
three active systems. not a lot of space to fit others, so the other mentions are low-end prospects.
HF 1743z06september

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* Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 06 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast zacros   Wed Sep 07 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast crpeavley   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Jekyhe904   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rasvar   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast weatherwatcher2   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Catawba   Wed Sep 07 2005 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Quick hit thoughts Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Random Chaos   Wed Sep 07 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts Hugh   Wed Sep 07 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts emackl   Wed Sep 07 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Quick hit thoughts tpratch   Wed Sep 07 2005 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast scottsvb   Wed Sep 07 2005 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast dolfinatic   Wed Sep 07 2005 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 07 2005 03:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Sep 07 2005 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Sep 07 2005 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Clark   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast disneyfanfl   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 07 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast native   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast trinibaje   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast The Force 2005   Wed Sep 07 2005 01:22 PM
. * * ophelia.... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 05:44 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: TD16 native   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Gulf Of Mexico Myles   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Rabbit   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Todays activity Rich B   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity DebbiePSL   Tue Sep 06 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Ryan   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Todays activity Hugh   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico doug   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:24 PM
. * * uh oh... Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: uh oh... native   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Of Mexico Tazmanian93   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: TD16 Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Latest vortex message Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 06 2005 08:00 PM
. * * WX in Charleston Anton Ross   Tue Sep 06 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Maria Robert   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:31 AM
. * * Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Robert   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Ricreig   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:56 AM
. * * setting the pace HanKFranK   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:38 PM
. * * Re: setting the pace 317288   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:05 AM
. * * Re: setting the pace Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:42 AM
. * * upgrade? HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:01 AM
. * * Re: upgrade? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:05 AM
. * * Re: setting the pace Hootowl   Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 PM
. * * busy busy busy Ryan   Mon Sep 05 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy tpratch   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Ryan   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:31 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy LadyStorm   Tue Sep 06 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: busy busy busy GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Indications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:36 PM
. * * here goes HanKFranK   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:50 PM
. * * The loop twizted sizter   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: The loop DJINFLA   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: The loop FlaMommy   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: The loop Clark   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: The loop native   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: The loop NewWatcher   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: The loop Juanjo   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: The loop GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: The loop Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: The loop Hootowl   Tue Sep 06 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: The loop MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: The loop Wingman51   Tue Sep 06 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: The loop Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:53 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Colleen A.   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:13 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 PM
. * * TD 16 FORMS! recmod   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! Ron Basso   Tue Sep 06 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! Steve H1   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: TD 16 FORMS! emackl   Tue Sep 06 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: busy busy busy Random Chaos   Tue Sep 06 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Wave Off FL Coast cjzydeco   Mon Sep 05 2005 09:34 PM

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