TD 16 is in a bad spot: between Nate and that deepening low in the central GOM...which while an upper low...is showing some signs of building convection ( a surface feature perhaps?) and is certainly contributing to the shear over 16. I think a case can be made that 16 won't really evolve The center is very near the big island and not much convection around it now.. I am impressed with the changes taking place in the upper low in the GOM much different now than this morning...
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