Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast

#104 Published Wednesday September 7, 2005 at 9:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, this not for profit weather discussion is not for use in lieu of official sources, is not for protection of life or property, is for educational purposes only and is subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Once again sorry for the recent silence as I had been in the moving mode from Plant City to a newly purchased house in Lakeland since Sunday August 27th. Only now have I recovered from the ordeal.

At the 8:00 pm EDT NHC/TPC advisory T.S. Ophelia continues to be quasi-stationary. She has a sustained wind of 50 mph, is at position 28.8 deg. N 79.3 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.35" a slight fall since 5:00 pm EDT.

Looking at latest NWS Melbourne, FL NEXRAD radar as well as IR and WV satellite imagery, she continues to get better organized, with convection wrapping around the center of circulation. However she also continues to suffer from just enough southerly wind shear so that most convection is absent in the south and east quadrants. It appears that wind shear will increase with time so I doubt that she will reach CAT 1 hurricane strength in the near term. But as she is over very warm water anything is possible.

Where is she headed? Well quite simply it's totally impossible to accurately forecast a stationary tropical cyclone and as usual the models are quite useless. Eventually a mid latitude shortwave trough will swing by to the north and give Ophelia a tug to the N-NE. But how much of a tug will be determined by the strength and position of the trough. I think the trough will pull her N-NE but not pick her up and send her out to sea. Then we will see high pressure ridging develop to the north and that will swing her around in a clockwise looping motion and head back for the east coast of Central Florida as a CAT 1 hurricane, much like Jeanne. But once again this is no more than educated speculation at this time.

Hurricane Maria is only a threat to shipping and Hurricane Nate will brush Bermuda and then head for the shipping lanes too. There are several other tropical disturbances currently in the Cape Verde wave train and as usual will have to be monitored.

I've had no opportunity to comment on the horrific tragedy that unfolded in LA, MS and AL last week with Katrina. I had made a prediction of 10,000+ fatalities and it appears that it may come to fruition. Personally very soon I'm going to travel to AL and MS and hand out food, clothing and $$$ to victims. One very serious lesson that needs to be learned is that you can never depend on government to protect you and take care of you.

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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA

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