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Here is the 11pm Discussion:
WTNT43 KNHC 270339

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

A 26/2319Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH LILI HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THAT A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
NOW EXISTS. IN ADDITION...A 26/2309Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED TO -80 TO -85C
DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL SHEARED. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LILI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSERVATIVELY
BASED ON QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND
STRONGER WINDS IN GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY EXIST IN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/05...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WORD
ESTIMATE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LILI MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD
AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE LILI CLEARS JAMAICA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF LILI
IS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM AS LOW 5 KT BY THE
AVN/GFS MODEL AND AS HIGH AS 12 KT BY THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK WILL USE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD VALUE OF 7 TO 8 KT UNTIL A GOOD
CENTER LOCATION AND INITIAL FORWARD MOTION CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY
RECON DATA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING LILIS DEVELOPMENT THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LETTING UP SOME DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL EXISTS AND ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO LET
UP. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LILI WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PLACE LILI UNDER MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS LILI TO 75 KT IN
72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.7N 73.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 74.3W 35 KTS
24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 75.3W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 76.3W 45 KTS
48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 77.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 80.5W 60 KTS

ED

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