Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
302 (Idalia)
, Major:
302 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia)
Major:
302 (Idalia)
Any mets wish to weigh in on Ophelia's likely track and intensity this am? Beaufort County, SC emergency management is meeting at 9:00 am to make a decision on evacuation. NHC path, I see, is moved north, with the GFDL being a southern outlier. Any thoughts as to how much weight I should put on that model, which seems to be more current, in making my own decision?
All thoughts gratefully accepted. Last night, I was strongly leaning toward leaving today (I have elderly inlaws, dogs, etc), but today am leaning toward "hold", since landfall seems to have been pushed back some.
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