Quote: The latest recon actually shows it south of the previous position, so that's a good question. Why are no models and no experts mentioning a possible southern move?
I think we can discard this solution since the NAM unrealistically weakens the ridge to the southeast of Ophelia (probably because the NAM is a regional model and this ridge is right on the edge of the model domain). The NAM is also quicker in building a slightly stronger 500mb ridge north of Ophelia, and if that part of the forecast verifies, we could start seeing at least some westward component of motion in 18 to 24 hours.
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