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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ophelia's Movement
      Sun Sep 11 2005 05:56 PM

If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.

Also, a reminder to use the Forecast Lounge Forum for predictions that are based on little more than a hunch. All of the models generally perform poorly on a stationary system - and some of them perform poorly regardless, which is why models are used only as a guide when developing a forecast (along with many other inputs). If you "live by the model - die by the model" you are not forecasting anything - you are simply reading. Model outputs and sometimes even official forecasts generate a lot of conjecture - that often never verifies. If Hurricane Ophelia continues to drift eastward, the likelyhood of a U.S. landfall diminishes. This is not to say that she shouldn't be watched - for she should - however, speculation for landfall in Florida or even South Carolina based on current trends is remote at best.

Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED

(Note: From just about the last good visible satellite image at 2240Z, the center coordinates were 31.4N 75.7W)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 11 2005 06:58 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 11 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again NONAME   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again WisconsinWill   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:05 PM
. * * ophelia in the middle seat HanKFranK   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Could She? Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Could She? Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Could She? bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:01 PM
. * * 00z models HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:01 AM
. * * late sep/early oct HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct NewWatcher   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Tantalus   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Myles   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Just a Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia WisconsinWill   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct ralphfl   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Magic Hat   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Yikes   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Could She? twizted sizter   Sun Sep 11 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement jusforsean   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again emackl   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again CarolinaGurl   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:19 PM

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