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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 00z models
      Mon Sep 12 2005 07:55 AM

Yikes: Let me try and explain as best I understand - a met or HF would be much better, but lacking them, I might be able to get it right

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

The high pressure over the eastern US is eroding and moving slowly east. As it does this it opens a potential westward movement path. It's still at least a day off before Ophelia's likely to move, and if you look at the model tracks, it isn't until midweek (late tues, wed, or early thurs) that landfall would occur...if it ever occurs...or if it occurs anywhere near the time or space the models indicate.

The real question is what happens with the high over the Atlantic. Earlier this week it was forcast to stay where it was, possibly strengthen, and thus as the high over the US weakened the one over the atlantic would push Ophelia toward land.

That has changed. The Atlantic high has drifed east and weakened slightly, moving the forcing for Ophelia further out to sea. The result is that as the high over the US weakens and moves east Ophelia might not track west as was expected earlier this week. That's why the models are now predicting a more northward movement...however, it could be just as possible to stall or have a southward movement...ie NOGAPS and CMC solutions respectively.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 12 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again NONAME   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again WisconsinWill   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:05 PM
. * * ophelia in the middle seat HanKFranK   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Could She? Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Could She? Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Could She? bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:01 PM
. * * 00z models HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:01 AM
. * * late sep/early oct HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct NewWatcher   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Tantalus   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Myles   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Just a Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia WisconsinWill   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct ralphfl   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Magic Hat   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Yikes   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Could She? twizted sizter   Sun Sep 11 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement jusforsean   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again emackl   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again CarolinaGurl   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:19 PM

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