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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Idalia) , Major: 285 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 285 (Idalia) Major: 285 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
late sep/early oct
      Mon Sep 12 2005 01:19 PM

MJO has become redefined this month, with a fairly solid wave propagating east right now. the enhancing zone has already crossed the dateline. it could be that the new eastpac system is a precursor to an oncoming active stretch. the wave in august washed out before getting to our part of the hemisphere (it was probably damped by some other factor), and this one could also... but if this one makes it, we'll get an mjo pulse in the atlantic during a hyper-active year.
the entire basin is open for development this time of year, but the eastern atlantic usually doesn't do much after the third week of september. it looks like the far cv region will shut down shortly.. it has already been impinged on by upper troughs, prematurely. we've got what's acting like a persistent positive nao, which favors zonal ridging.. with negative pulses... this is the pattern that enacted in july and gave us all that activity. it also favors low-trajectory tracks in the deep tropics that get storms further westward.
then there's the ensemble means themselves. they've been showing increasingly zonal ridging in the eastern u.s. for some time.. this has verified so far. what we'll have in the next couple weeks, if it verifies in the future, will be a pattern that favors tracks into the gulf and eventually to the southeast coast. add to that, late september/early october is when the favored development zones shift to the western caribbean.
all of this adds up to renewed peril on the gulf coast, is what i'm thinking. perhaps something like what happened in the fall of 2002, only not in an el nino year.
HF 1319z12september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 12 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again NONAME   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again WisconsinWill   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:05 AM
. * * ophelia in the middle seat HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Could She? Ryan   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Could She? Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Could She? bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:01 PM
. * * 00z models HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:01 PM
. * * late sep/early oct HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct NewWatcher   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Tantalus   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Myles   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Just a Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct ralphfl   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Magic Hat   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Yikes   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Could She? twizted sizter   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement jusforsean   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again emackl   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again CarolinaGurl   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM

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