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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Ophelia
      Mon Sep 12 2005 11:30 PM

Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the NHC position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.

Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.

Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to Katrina and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 12 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again NONAME   Sun Sep 11 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again WisconsinWill   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Sun Sep 11 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:05 AM
. * * ophelia in the middle seat HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Could She? Ryan   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Could She? Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Could She? bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:01 PM
. * * 00z models HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:01 PM
. * * late sep/early oct HanKFranK   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct NewWatcher   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Tantalus   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct B.C.Francis   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 12 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Myles   Mon Sep 12 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Just a Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: late sep/early oct ralphfl   Mon Sep 12 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Magic Hat   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Yikes   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Ed in Va   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 00z models J.C.   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: 00z models Random Chaos   Mon Sep 12 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Could She? twizted sizter   Mon Sep 12 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement jusforsean   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement bigpapi   Mon Sep 12 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement GuppieGrouper   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia's Movement Hugh   Mon Sep 12 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again emackl   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Hugh   Sun Sep 11 2005 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again CarolinaGurl   Sun Sep 11 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again bigpapi   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again Ryan   Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM

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