F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
a little more ophelia
      Thu Sep 15 2005 01:29 AM

ophelia has probably done it's worst to the mainland. the counties along long bay and onslow bay from northeast sc up across southeast nc have taken long hours of strong gusty winds and intense rainfall.. parts of brunswick county north carolina have doppler estimates ranging near 15". the waccamaw river is going to be up for a while, needless to say. right now the center is approaching what will be considered a landfall.. if only partial... at cape lookout. the large eye should trace the barrier islands to near hatteras, with the core of strong winds running from carteret county to dare county. ophelia has been fairly stable today at around 980mb, with the winds roughly matching the minimum pressure. based on the outflow and convective pattern i wouldn't expect it to intensify any more. terminal track from here should be close enough to nantucket/cape cod to merit issuance of t.s. warnings for a late friday passage.. and the storm will likely move even closer to nova scotia on saturday as it becomes extratropical. there is a chance it will baroclinically interact with the shortwave to the west and move more to the north, affecting eastern new england more severely. the nhc doesn't think this is likely and neither do i... as the storm has tended east consistently and the shortwave doesn't appear to be digging or amplifying much. if this occurs the track will be slower in the short term and ophelia will pass the areas to the north perhaps 12hr later than otherwise.
rest of the basin:
95L has an ever growing envelope of convection. the low pressure at the surface is elongated east-west, but slowly consolidating. if it takes longer then the ultimate track will be further west, and quite possibly over the caribbean islands. most of the models are favoring a quicker development and more northward track, and based on the appearance of the system i'd agree with them. this will probably be a classified system by the weekend. most of the globals and ensemble runs are showing a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge near 65-70w, so this system will likely end up closer to bermuda than the u.s.
what has me far more concerned is the feature north of puerto rico. the consensus of globals track this feature westward through the straits of florida around early next week.. some showing a closed surface low at that point. the hpc official even tracks it as such. ensemble forecasts show the zonal steering ridge centered over the gulf states weakening around the time this feature would be nearing the western gulf... if it hasn't developed and done something strange in the meanwhile, it will be there late next week. very strong upper ridging is shown in the gulf at this time... looks like a very favorable scenario for development if it pans out. i've been mumbling about texas maybe seeing something later this month for about a week now... the candidate has shown up. western gulf is still very warm... it's something to keep an eye out for.
globals are showing other activity as the month progresses. the mjo pulse has sort of split, going out of phase again. we'll probably see a more strung out, less concentrated pulse.. but if you look at the tropical eastpac right now you get the picture that it's vigorous enough. also been watching the sst anomalies in the tropical pacific. there's a more clear cold signal than we've had all year... la nina may be coming on this winter, after a 3 1/2 year hiatus.
that'll do her.
HF 0129z15september

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Sep 15 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Convergence   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Bloodstar   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Cycloneye11   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:29 PM
. * * New Invest Wingman51   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: New Invest NewWatcher   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:14 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: New Invest sailor   Wed Sep 14 2005 04:35 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia HCW   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Rabbit   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia La Nimo   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Big Kahuna   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Clark   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia CoalCracker   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 15 2005 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 15 2005 05:32 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia syfr   Wed Sep 14 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia ralphfl   Wed Sep 14 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia scottsvb   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ryan   Thu Sep 15 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Daytonaman   Thu Sep 15 2005 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia bigpapi   Thu Sep 15 2005 03:09 AM
. * * a little more ophelia HanKFranK   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Thu Sep 15 2005 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 14 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia DebbiePSL   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia The Force 2005   Wed Sep 14 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Ed in Va   Wed Sep 14 2005 07:01 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Todd   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: New Invest TheSkyGuy-in-OZ   Wed Sep 14 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: 95L INVEST NONAME   Wed Sep 14 2005 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas zacros   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas rexsc   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas bigpapi   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Invest 95L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L amonty   Tue Sep 13 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L prideman   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:34 AM
. * * ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle HanKFranK   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Ryan   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:46 AM
. * * Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle Tazmanian93   Wed Sep 14 2005 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L bn765   Tue Sep 13 2005 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L Random Chaos   Wed Sep 14 2005 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L CoalCracker   Tue Sep 13 2005 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Chris Bryant   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Atlantic activity Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas B.C.Francis   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Tue Sep 13 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Old Sailor   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Random Chaos   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas J.C.   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas Clark   Tue Sep 13 2005 04:34 AM
. * * ophelia creeping along HanKFranK   Tue Sep 13 2005 06:08 AM
. * * Re: ophelia creeping along WisconsinWill   Tue Sep 13 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas CarolinaGurl   Tue Sep 13 2005 02:56 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas *DELETED* noooo   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:31 AM
. * * Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas prideman   Tue Sep 13 2005 01:41 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 688 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 31631

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center