Incredible model agreement in the EPac and Atlantic on tracks and development over the next five days this evening. What you tend to look for in the models is consistency and agreement; we've got both right now.
Right now, all of the current runs that I have seen are developing the following features:
* TS Jova in the EPac, sending it west to west-southwest.
* Hurricane Kenneth in the EPac, sending it west but at a slower rate of speed.
* The feature behind Kenneth, sending it northwest toward cooler waters but also developing it at a decent clip. (Note that if this happens, Kenneth may meet the same fate as Greg did earlier this season, but I'm not sold on that yet...may just be enough movement from Kenneth and separation between the disturbances to keep it from happening).
* The feature N. of Puerto Rico, whether before or after passing through the Fl. Straits on a path for N. Mexico/S. Texas.
* The disturbance (95L; near 11N/50W right now) in the central Atlantic, keeping it north of the Lesser Antilles. (There is another feature behind it near 40W, but I feel that 95L is a better bet right now.)
As noted above, it's not just the first run that these models (GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, Canadian, and FSU MM5) have been showing this particular evolution -- it's about the 3rd or 4th in many cases. That's not to say that everything will happen, but given the active MJO phase coming and what looks to be favorable conditions aloft appearing in the Atlantic in the coming days, it's a good bet something does happen.
Ultimate track on 95L might affect Bermuda down the line; if it gets strong, it'll head out to sea sooner, while if it stays weak, it'll probably get further west. No such luck for the feature near Puerto Rico -- almost assuredly headed west once it breaks off of the end of the upper-level trough it is under. Ophelia heading out to sea should help kick the large trough in the central Atlantic extending down to 20N out and free up the basin for development once again. Water temperatures are still above normal across much of the basin except for those areas affected by Katrina (near-normal at the surface, probably slightly below normal below the surface) and Ophelia (below normal), while the upper-level pattern reminds me a little of that found in June just before things got kicking into July. I'm not saying that we'll see 5 storms in the Atlantic over the next month, but we may likely see another two within a week. Like HF said, the prognosis continues to go downhill with time with regards to further development.
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