T.S. Rita Forms East of the Bahamas

Random Chaos -- anytime they send out a vortex message, they inherently found a center -- often the center -- within the storm. They had only sampled a small area of the system, however, so the low value on the max flight-level winds is somewhat misleading. There have been higher values in other parts of the storm though, as we've since found out.

As for the shutter question... I don't even see why that's an issue. If you do it correctly and per the instructions, you shouldn't hurt yourself putting them up. For any substantial system -- and yes, 80mph or 80kt is substantial -- they should go up. If not, you run the risk of substantial property damage, even in a newer house...ask the people of Orlando what they saw from similar/weaker winds last year from Charley.

TD18 is getting better organized, but it's not Rita yet. Probably tonight, with the ultimate NHC path looking good from here. This'll keep the bulk of the storm south of the mainland but probably lash into the Keys in a fashion similar to that seen with Georges in 1998. I'd go a little stronger than the NHC on intensity, but only as the storm starts to hit the Florida Straits and not before then. It'll pass over the Loop Current as Katrina did, but the heat content is nowhere near as high as it was; the relatively fast motion of the storm will mitigate any potential negative effects that could affect the storm in Katrina's wake. Fair bet that we have a major hurricane affecting somewhere in northern Mexico or the Texas coastline by the end of the upcoming week...everyone from central Louisiana westward needs to watch this one, in some cases just in case future changes are needed to the track forecast.

Phillipe is getting better organized and may be a hurricane later tonight or early tomorrow. Recon isn't going to be going out there but once more unless the track forecast changes given the threat from TD18, but despite that I feel this has the potential to be the season's next major hurricane. Might be a threat for Bermuda down the line toward next weekend as a category 3/4 storm; the area that it is passing over has some of the highest heat content in the entire basin outside of the Caribbean and is forecast to be a region of weak shear, aiding in the ultimate intensity of the storm.

Will have to watch the wave in the central Atlantic for future development; it probably won't get drawn north like Phillipe, however. Might be a threat to the islands later in the week, but probably won't develop until it gets a little further west than where it is now. Stan? Too early to say.

Active train in the E. Pacific; too many storms & disturbances, particularly with new TD13E absorbing TS Lidia. Kenneth is a midget major hurricane; if it gets into the cooler waters, it should weaken faster than forecast; if it doesn't, it could maintain longer than is forecast, making the track forecast critical to the intensity forecast. The bigger player is Jova, however, which could end up as a sidescraping threat for Hawaii later in the week. Current track keeps it east of there, but it still must be watched as the tendency with the storm has been to head further to the west.

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