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think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.

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I think she's already a Cat 3, and that it will be confirmed in the next 20 minutes when the 11pm advisory package is issued. Cat 4 may take 12-36 hours after that. The storm is still south of where Katrina traversed - I think - and if the northwest jog doesn't continue the storm may stay over hot water for longer than some think. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything to keep Rita for continuing through the roof, ERCs not withstanding. My projection for landfall is near Houston/Galveston, or possibly northeast of there, unless the NW jog continues in which case I think even as far east as Grand Isle could be possible.

NOTE: This really wouldn't put it out of the "cone", either - just have it take the northern edge rather than the center.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:24 PM)

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