Rita On Track For Texas - FLHurricane.com

Hurricane Rita is leaving the Florida Straits and entering the Gulf of Mexico late this Tuesday evening. She is a growing Category II Hurricane and should reach Category III Wednesday morning as she heads into the central Gulf on a track just north of west.

Monday evening I took a first look at the potential landfall point for this storm and Houston looked like it could become the prime target for landfall. Earlier this evening, I attempted a more detailed analysis and came up with a landfall at Matagorda, Texas, at 24/0830Z with winds at landfall sustained at 120 knots (140mph - Category IV - midrange). The projected track for Rita is not too difficult. She is moving along the southern extent of a high pressure ridge that will slide eastward with time over the southeastern United States. As the ridge moves eastward, Rita will begin a turn to the northwest around 25N as she travels around the western extent of the ridge, and she should continue on this northwest track until landfall with the track becoming more northerly at or just before landfall. Landfall at Matagorda would mean that Rita would pass about 40 miles west of central Houston about an hour after landfall.

The 21/03Z NHC Forecast Advisory has adjusted her projected track to the right and projects landfall at Sargent, Texas, at 24/12Z as a Category IV Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 knots. Sargent is about 20 miles northeast of Matagorda along the north Texas coast - and thats close enough for me. Almost too close when we are only 20 miles and 3 and a half hours apart on an 80 hour forecast!

Its close enough to convince me that folks along the Texas coast from Port O'Connor to Sabine Pass need to start immediate preparations to protect their property and plan for their evacuation from the coast. Rita should intensify to Category IV on Thursday - perhaps even flirt with Category V Thursday evening - before stabilizing at Category IV on Friday as she encounters some modest wind shear in the northwest Gulf. Residents of Louisiana need to carefully monitor the progress of Rita over the next couple of days for any additional eastward adjustments of the forecast track.

Rita is expected to become a dangerous and powerful hurricane with both high winds and high storm surge at and east of the landfall point. If you are in the expected zone of landfall, do the smart thing and evacuate - and give yourself plenty of time to reach a safe haven.
ED

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