I just don't buy it. One series of model runs last night, which happen to agree on the east motion, and the forecast is completely changed. Now, as the NHC acknowledges, the center reforms more than 200 miles to the south, and "the track will have to be adjusted." I'm sorry, but these are professionals, correct? I mean, I know its far from an exact science, but isn't there some thinking going on here, other than model-reliance? I don't know. Lately, I have been feeling that they are doing nothing more than regurgitating models, which change as the data that is put into them changes. I would love to see some creative, intuitive, human forecasting from the NHC.
I don't mean to bash. I just don't think its such a sure thing that this system will get picked up by a trof that, admittedly, "appears weak" on imagery. My prediction? Not necessarily that it becomes a U.S. landfall event, but I think its gonna keep heading SW into the Bahamas, perhaps move a little bit east, get left behind...and we have a hurricane just east of the Bahamas, with an inclination to nudge west...
As for Lili? Watch out west of New Orleans. Yikes.
Thoughts?
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