All Time Third Most Intense Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moves Westward in the Gulf

...It is indeed likely that what you are seeing in the infrared imagery of the "pin-point" eye are tendencies for polarward wobbles. Not surprising, she is ultimately slated for a right turn. However, if you study the imagery long enough what you are really seeing are not uncommon step-wise adjustments to the right along a path that is essentially west, when not performing these steps. Which is to say, the governing motion is W. TPC is not in the habit of throwing caveats in there to account for what is probably obvious to everyone, because its confusing and unnecessary.

The problem with this is TPCs bureaucracy and policy conventions, some of which you must agree with. It is impractical and splitting hairs to ring an update every time a focused satellite observer takes note of subtle variation or nuance along Rita's or any other tropical cyclone's path. The fact of the matter is, ALL hurricanes, even the ones following the most linear pathways make apparent "wobbles" and or jump tracks some fraction of a degree, lat or lon, as they go. Convective processes can also jerk relative motions awry, making it very difficult, even in very developed systems to be absolutely deterministic. More frequently than not these subtleties have no bearing on the ultimate track, and for those hobbyist who track tempests, it can be a bit frustrating. As far as the here and now goes, Rita could easily wobble several times and still denude Galveston off the face of the planet. Scientifically, we have to be more patient. We must establish a sufficient observation pool in order to derive cogent analysis pertaining to track motion - hence the 6 hours. You may have noticed that Charley on the west coast of Florida, 2004, did get intermediate updates related to the Charlotte Harbor area, when it became certain that a wobble right meant impacting there as opposed to 70 miles up the Coast. So it is done when it is prudent to do so.

Another way to look at is that synoptically, the ridge which is driving Rita west is still in tact, so you could argue that we are right about to see a sw motion for a couple of hours, and if officials drew up a wnw motion, too many people would look like geniuses... Can't have that now can we.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US