Quote: Dr Lyons just had a good discussion. The storm will turn north, that is inevitable. But it is relative to the forward speed. Basically, the faster it moves, the farther west it goes, the slower, the farther east. The storm is not turning, it is wobbling. But wobbles slow down forward speed, and thus can shift the track slightly east. It has a way to go.
He's right, but I don't see any slowdown in the forward motion. The earlier wobble to the north has smoothed out and it's back on basically a due west track just slightly north of the forecast (north of the forecast due to the earlier wobble). It does appear to have a bit of an arm to the north on IR right now but that's 1) probably temporary, and 2) probably a sign that the wind field is once again expanding, not that the storm is turning.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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