Had an interesting discussion with one of the professors here this evening (yes, this late!) about the potential impact of the temperature fields in the Gulf. He believes -- and has support for it -- that the fast forward motion of the storm is keeping the upwelling from being rather significant (i.e. a significant negative contributor to the intensity of the storm). Thus, it is moreso the skin temperatures -- that at and near the surface -- that are the most important toward the current intensity of the storm.
Further, it is moreso the gradients along the areas of high and low oceanic heat content that are more important than the warm or cool eddies themselves. This results from it being an enhanced region of surface fluxes; with sufficiently warm temperatures along the gradient leading to favorable heat and moisture fluxes, this leads to a scenario favoring maintenance and intensification. Think of it somewhat like a temperature gradient along the Gulf Stream and how it can enhance midlatitude development and you're sort of along the right track. Rita is forecast to move directly along such gradients during the rest of its time over open water.
Needless to say, it leads to an interesting quandry with the intensity forecast. Can it strengthen even further? Will such a scenario lead to maintenance of the storm despite inner-core fluctuations? If such a scenario occurs, how does it change how we view storms and the usage of the products out there representing upper oceanic heat content? All are valid questions and need to be asked...and answered; there are many more such related questions as well, all of which would probably take up two or three days just going through.
Food for thought for the night.
Recon is on the way; looks like, to my amazement, they flew out of Keesler. (Or maybe not, given Jason's post above! Was going off of the 30N/88.5W first observation as my starting point.)
I think you are right Clark...I read it wrong! However, I don't think they departed BIX, just passed over it...
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