Having watched Katrina and Rita closely skirt us here in South Florida, one thing became apparent, neither storm, or really any storm, follows directly the consensus. Keep an eye on it. Katrina, at its infancy, scooted much further south than the consensus, when it hit Miami-Dade County, Florida - following one model nearly spot on. Rita, too, did not go as far north as projected. It seems to me, that Rita has the potential to skirt around on the outer corners of the projected models. LA darn sure better watch out, but I would NOT breath a sigh of relief if I were anywhere between Corpus Christi and New Orleans. Texas and Louisiana are both in play. This storm should be taken very seriously. Plus, given its size, it may have other plans than what we would typically expect. And while it has weakened...not really, it certainly could gain strength again.
I suspect the 11 AM EDT discussion will provide some clarity, but as the NHC will readily admit, within 24 hours, their best guess has a margin of error of 80 nautical miles (~92 standard land miles).
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