Rita Chugs Westward - FLHurricane.com

Well...actually there are a couple of reason why this could be less (albeit still potent) circumstantially, looking at this morning..
a) The earlier polarward component "may" ultimately mean the track needs to be shifted farther up the coast. Rita's track guidance and reasoning behind has maintained tendency for increasing northerly component. Keeping that in mind, whatever latitude she gains now will be conserved and added. The rest follows... It is entirely possible (not certain) that she will continue to gain latitude ahead of curve and simply end up farther up the coast. There are more reasons why she would gain latitude than lose at this point. This is profoundly important in terms of shear numbers because the population densities sparse out closer to the Louisiana state boarder. That is not intended to diminish the enormity for those who do reside in that area, and there certainly is a population there to be concern about. In terms of incurring losses to property and persons, however, less is always better!

b) Still an impressive entity in the Gulf, Rita's satellite presentation this morning simply does not quite have that same mystique in unmitigated horror she had overnight... I would never downplay a recon fix of 170mph and a central pressure of 907mbs (7am intermediate advisory), but a 10mb pressure rise is certainly significant nonetheless. The eye is still distinct, but as of 10:am, the massive and terrifyingly large CDO feature from the previous 12+ hours has shrunk and now supportive of smaller pulses of coldest red hues in IR, as opposed to that blood red meat grinder of a nightmare that belongs in the movie "War Of The Worlds". In fact, the CDO is still there in tact, but it is about half the diameter and differentiating smaller. It is hard to believe Rita will not be even weaker per the next official advisory due out in about 10 minutes... I suppose for the welfare of humanity it is better off she remain merely an intense hurricane rather than something that belongs on Jupiter.

There is also recent conjecture that earlier acquisition of polarward component means she will avail of warmer SSTs than expected... There is also a prediction that shear values will go from below normal to near normal or even slightly above after another 18 to 24 hours. It depends...If Rita is stronger, she can fight off the initial shear as it approaches because her circumvallate of subsidence will be confluent with any opposing wind field (deformation zone - i.e., she's created her own environment in which to fester!) We'lll see...

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