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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Here's what I think they're doing...
      Tue Oct 01 2002 05:25 PM

As we all know, the bigger the storm, the more forward momenutum it has and less chance of a radical turn. It's been stair-stepping it's way between NW and WNW for a couple of days as the center rotates within the overal hurricane. I think the TPC is playing this out as having less chance to turn toward the end (except gradually). If this is the case, Golden Triangle to Lake Charles - LOOK OUT! That's Orange, TX, Sulphur, LA, Lake Charles, LA, Westlake, LA, Cameron, LA, Hackberry, LA, Port Arthur, TX, Beaumont, TX.

I want to see where the 10pm (CDT) forecaster goes with this. As we've seen all day, the models have trended east, yet the official track has definitely backed off west. This is an interesting play. Let's see how it plays out, because NHC's ass is on the line with a major hurricane heading toward the coast within 48 hours!

Whew.

Steve

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lili Near Cuba MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 01 2002 05:25 PM
. * * worrisome things HanKFranK   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:15 PM
. * * Re: worrisome things Justin in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba game 1   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba bobby   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:25 PM
. * * 3 YEARS IN A ROW (NOT!!!) WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:38 PM
. * * Yeah you right, Richie... Steve   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:16 PM
. * * wow........... Southern4sure   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:28 PM
. * * Re: wow........... windblown   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:47 PM
. * * Re: wow........... tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:55 PM
. * * On-line media for LA joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:07 PM
. * * Lake Charles-No shelters joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:26 PM
. * * 11pm Update WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:32 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update RickinMobile   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:17 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update Justin in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:27 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:40 PM
. * * New Orleans could get smashed.......sure could rickinmobile   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:50 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans could get smashed.......sure could Domino   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:59 PM
. * * when Andrew hit Rickinmobile   Wed Oct 02 2002 12:07 AM
. * * Re: when Andrew hit (the conspiracy) HanKFranK   Wed Oct 02 2002 01:19 AM
. * * New Orleans? Rickinmobile   Wed Oct 02 2002 07:33 AM
. * * Andrew Cover-up Tony   Wed Oct 02 2002 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up troy2   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up jth   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up Tony   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up troy2   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up Tony   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Andrew Cover-up FlaRebel   Wed Oct 02 2002 09:32 AM
. * * Re: New Orleans? Hurric   Wed Oct 02 2002 08:36 AM
. * * Re: when Andrew hit BillD   Wed Oct 02 2002 12:53 AM
. * * latest recon HanKFranK   Wed Oct 02 2002 01:53 AM
. * * Re: latest recon Domino   Wed Oct 02 2002 03:51 AM
. * * Re: 11:03pm Update troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:25 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update anon(ShawnS)   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update Mary K.   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:07 PM
. * * Re: 11pm Update tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:51 PM
. * * wow Southern4sure   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:57 PM
. * * Re: wow Southern4sure   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:02 PM
. * * Re: wow BillD   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:25 PM
. * * Reminds me of Andrew LoisCane   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Reminds me of Andrew BillD   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Reminds me of Andrew dudewheresmycar?   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Reminds me of Andrew Justin in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:50 PM
. * * Re: wow........... BillD   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:06 PM
. * * Re: wow........... kyle   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:52 PM
. * * New Orleans and Evacuation Routes and Times Justin in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Justin... Steve   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba bobby   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba game   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba dennis   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:19 PM
. * * and something even more different troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:22 PM
. * * Re: and something even more different troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:25 PM
. * * Re: and something even more different HanKFranK   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: and something even more different Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:40 PM
. * * Re: and something even more different VolusiaMike   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Alice update Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Alice update troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Alice update troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Alice update Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Alice update caneman   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:04 PM
. * * and something even more different troy2   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:21 PM
. * * Hurricane from NE in jan in Miami? Repost for visbility.... Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Lili Cat 2 at 1400 10/1/02 Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:52 PM
. * * Hurricane that struck Miami from NE in january? Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:48 PM
. * * Lilli Cat 2 at 1400 10/1/02 Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Lilli now Cat 2 Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:49 PM
. * * Don't Count Kyle Out!! tom   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Don't Count Kyle Out!! Justin in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:17 AM
. * * Lili Cat 2 at 1400 10/1/02 Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:51 PM
. * * Lil's collapsing eyewall? Rich B   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:23 AM
. * * Lilly and Isidore usufruct   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Lili Near Cuba BabyCat   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:23 AM
. * * Models jth   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Models Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:38 AM
. * * nhc Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:00 AM
. * * should have made a track... HanKFranK   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:25 AM
. * * My call... Unlogged Steve   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:18 AM
. * * Re: My call... tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:45 AM
. * * Re: moving over Cuba tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:59 AM
. * * Re: moving over Cuba garyb   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:42 PM
. * * Re: moving over Cuba joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 02:18 PM
. * * Hey garyb Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:46 PM
. * * Definitely a jog to the north Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Definitely a jog to the north Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Definitely a jog to the north Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 02:20 PM
. * * RE: Lousiana landfalls.... Bill   Tue Oct 01 2002 02:29 PM
. * * Hum the Jaws Themesong... Unlogged Steve   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Hum the Jaws Themesong... Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 03:56 PM
. * * Re: moving over Cuba Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:37 PM
. * * Re: moving over Cuba tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:54 PM
. * * Climatology jth   Tue Oct 01 2002 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Climatology Brad in Miami   Tue Oct 01 2002 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Climatology jth   Tue Oct 01 2002 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Climatology jth   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Climatology FlaRebel   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Climatology chevyman   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Climatology caneman   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Climatology hurricanefreak   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:35 PM
. * * TPC acknowledges the NW movement, but moves track further west in 48 hours (near Lake Charles)... Unloggedsteve   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: TPC acknowledges the NW movement, but moves track further west in 48 hours (near Lake Charles)... Anonymous   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Re: TPC acknowledges the NW movement, but moves track further west in 48 hours (near Lake Charles)... Kevin   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Climatology kyle   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Climatology jth   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Climatology joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:19 PM
. * * Here's what I think they're doing... Steve-unplugged   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:25 PM
. * * The alternative... Steve-unplugged   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:28 PM
. * * Re: The alternative... BabyCat at work   Tue Oct 01 2002 06:12 PM
. * * Re: The alternative... Frank J P   Tue Oct 01 2002 06:30 PM
. * * hell no to N.O. (the saints will play) Anon (HF)   Tue Oct 01 2002 07:05 PM
. * * Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... FJP   Tue Oct 01 2002 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... Houstontracker   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:51 PM
. * * joepub1.... Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Going more to the west right now... HEY SHAWN.... Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 08:22 PM
. * * Re: The alternative... tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:36 PM
. * * Re: The alternative... BabyCat at work   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:57 PM
. * * What are the chances..... Southern4sure   Tue Oct 01 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Climatology BabyCat at work   Tue Oct 01 2002 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Climatology joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Kyle getting stronger joepub1   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:46 PM
. * * Kyle! Rasvar   Tue Oct 01 2002 01:12 PM
. * * Hey Steve...... Frank P   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Hey Steve...... turkeyman   Tue Oct 01 2002 04:02 PM
. * * Re: nhc JustMe   Tue Oct 01 2002 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Models tom5r   Tue Oct 01 2002 10:04 AM

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