There is a clustering of forecast tracks near/just north of Galveston. The GFS, which is not plotted on that map, is much further north. The NOGAPS, which is also not plotted, takes the system very close to Galveston. Interesting to note that one model (the A98E) stalls the system off the coast, which is a remote possibility, but one that can't be discounted if the steering currents collapse as depicted in the GFS (which brings the system onshore before stalling it).
An extrapolation of the current movement takes the system very close to Galveston. Something that is important to remember here is that while the track of the system has consistently been a little north of the forecast track so far, the forecast track itself starts to bend to the north in about 6-12 hours. There is no guarantee that Rita will start bending further north when the forecast says it will, or that it will bend further north at all anytime soon.
I am not trying to be inflammatory about insisting that the storm could still hit the Houston/Galveston area, I just want to make sure that anyone there doesn't let their guard down, since the buzz seems to favor a more northern track at the moment.
0 registered and 1085 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 100200
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center