I try not to post too much on this board unless there is information to contribute, but I have to respond to 2 of your recent posts.
Earlier, you argued that the storm was not looking better organized and dismissed what to everyone else seemed to be an obvious trend in the CDO gathering colder cloud tops more uniformly around the center and the CDO itself becoming more symmetric than earlier today.
And just now, you argue that the path of the storm is paralleling the NHC's forecast path. This is demonstrably wrong. If you would examine the forecast plots that overlay the satellite loops, you will notice that the initial plot is close to where the eye was, but at the end of the loop, the eye is obviously north (or right) of the NHC track.(or the next plot). There is no way to conclude reasonably anything but that the angle of current motion over the last several hours has a more northerly component to it than does the official forecast track.
There are all kinds of idle speculation and uninformed interpretations on the board now. I encourage everyone to restrict posts to this board to informational posts only as much as possible.
Michael Cash (New Orleans, LA, now Baton Rouge, LA)
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