Recon is finding Milton continues to intensify and may become a Cat 5 at any time. Forecast of a turn towards Central Florida almost unanimous among the better models. Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
10 (Helene)
, Major:
10 (Helene)
Florida - Any: 10 (Helene)
Major:
10 (Helene)
Quote: Hello Everyone, First time poster, long, long, long time flhurricane observer...
My resume in short (NWS employee for a year, NBC4 Weather employee for a year)
Taking pressure readings along the coast of Texas may be an arbitrary method of forecasting where the eye might eventually make landfall, but its one in which many of us have used for years...
Based upon current readings:
Gavelston Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)
Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport Barometer: 29.71" (1005.9 mb
High Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)
Lake Charles Regional Airport Barometer: 29.70" (1006.3 mb)
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)
I'll be monitoring this...but it looks like Gavelston's pressure drop is the lowest.
...Finally, someone doing some actual Meteorology... Pressure tendencies are a big factor along the East Coast during rapid cyclogenisis. They are used also when "bombogenisis" takes off and there are several dependable model camps predicting conflicting track guidance; i.e., pressure tendencies elucidate where the trough is carving... However, not sure how well this works with Tropical entitites... I would imagine, since everything in the atmosphere must ultimately and primarily respond to the PGF, particularly in a the ocean-boundary layered coupled model, they would still be very useful though. Great work!
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