Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today

11:00PM EDT Update:
Turning more to the NNW now. Storm is still 145, pressure is up a bit. Update tomorrow am.

8:00PM EDT Update:
8PM advisory confirms it has leveled off. Forward motion has it moving slightly faster. It appears slightly elongated so the northward curve will start soon. Central Louisana is the best bet for landfall at this time.

Others east and west of this area should be ready also.

More to come...

7:30PM EDT Update:
Lili still strong, but I think has leveled off. Landfall still looks to be western or Central Louisiana.

5PM EDT Update:
Evacations all across the warning areas.

Lili now at 140MPH winds.

Our site is feeling the load right now, along with network problems at the host. Sorry for the slowness.

3PM EDT Update:
Lili

Moving Northwest toward western Louisiana.
I hope your preperations are done and you are out of the evacuated areas. If not, quit looking at this screen and do what you must.

Apologies for the slowness. It is network troubles at our hosting site, it is being worked on.

2PM EDT Update:
Hurricane Lili now a category 4 system, with winds of 135MPH and a pressure of 941 millibars. Warnings remain the same. This type of storm is capable of a 10-15 foot storm surge.

11am EDT Update:

From the hurricane center:

STOP THE PRESSES...THE LATEST FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER... RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE REST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS TRANSMITTED...INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB. SHOULD THIS BURST OF INTENSIFICATION CONTINUE...THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REVISED UPWARD ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.

Lili now a CAT 3 Hurricane with 120mph winds (and probably stronger with the hurrcane center's last minute comment) / 948 mb moving NW at 15

Original Post
The space shuttle is grounded today (launch was scheduled for today) over fears that the storm may interrupt mission control operations in the Johnson Space Center in Houston, for one good reason.

Hurricane Lili is a strong category 2 storm this morning. Some voluntary evacuations have been issued along the Louisiana coastline, and I'd recommend anyone in the hurricane watch/warning area prepare for the storm. I believe it will strengthen later today into a 3, and possibly close in on a high 3 low 4 before making landfall midday tomorrow.

Today is the day to prepare folks, and to make decisions. Go by how your area is and by what local authorities and news media pass along. The string of 3 years without a hurricane landfall in the US is about to end with a major making landfall.

Updates to the news will be coming as the situation warrants. Posts letting everyone know what's going on in the affected areas are welcome, but please make sure you are safe.

Beaumont TX TV: KFDM

New orleans TV: 6 4

Baton Rouge: wbrz 2

Kyle has restrengthened once again, and amazingly is still up in the air as to what it may eventually do. "We're still on ya Kyle, don't try to sneak in on us."

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Thu Oct 03 2002 02:46 AM)

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