Long time lurker - first time poster. It's been a great education listening to the opinions (sometimes loudly voiced) on this site over the course of Rita's journey (so far). It's really given me an appreciation for the difficulty of predicting these intense forces of nature.
Having said that, I am amazed at how good the NHC does in predicting these storms. Go to the archives for Rita and Katrina
you'll see that 3 days ago, the eventual landfall site was well within the 3-day cone. 5 days ago, it was well within the 5 day cone. The same is true for the Katrina archive. NO was within the 5 day and 3 day cones even though the track was considerably off at that time.
It reminds us that the actual path is almost impossible to predict, but their probability estimates are pretty darn good. It's pretty simple, if you are in the cone, you better pay attention!
So, kudos to NHC!! (as a side note, the attack on NHC graphics by accu that someone linked to earlier made me mad enough that I will never go back to that site).
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