the media types like to sound authoritative whether they really know what they're talking about or not. i don't think lou dobbs has thoroughly checked through what is left down in cameron or vermillion parishes... or has the foggiest how many more tornadoes will form in the lower missisippi valley this evening (heck of a lot of warnings last two hours). how many of y'all remember the newsies in the french quarter the evening after katrina hit declaring new orleans saved and open for business? that turned out a little wrong, didn't it? rita's weakening remnant isn't going to stop at texarkana as earlier thought.. right now is slowly decelerating as it moves into sw arkansas. official takes it east across the state and then southward in missisippi. it may just wash out as a frontal boundary approaches, or do the much-advertised jaunt back towards the gulf. there isn't a whole lot of confidence in any of that because of the weak currents and now shallow system. philippe got deemed history last night, but it's low-level swirl has remained discrete inside of the larger disturbance and has now swung back into the convergence line, with deep convection and probably some slight reintensification. system as a whole actually looks like one of the best candidates for a subtropical storm that i've seen in a while. bet is that nhc just mentions it in the TWO for the next couple of days as it remains steady-state. the wave out near 35w is under a good bit of southerly shear, which probably won't improve a whole lot. firing some deep convection in spite of that, but not very likely to do much. globals aren't getting the pattern down very well, so anything closer in over the next week or two is a lot trickier. the conditions to produce close-in development have shown up in numerous model runs, but not with the kind of consistency needed to really believe in them (though the gfs was showing a caribbean development for a couple of days, it's totally switched the pattern in later runs). best bet is a quiet week coming up, with maybe an odd invest struggling along. HF 0356z25september
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