Hank. I'm for number 4. "the system doesn't develop". But after reading the flash flood warning from NWS San Juan. Seems there is an abundance of tropical moisture present.
The Jackson,MS afternoon AFD, is sticking with a cool frontal passage around mid-week. Progging lows in the upper and mid 50s by week end. Indicating the "GFS is forecasting 850mb temps of 0.0 Celcius in Northern MS on Thursday evening and surface dewpoints ( read-really dry air! ) in the 30s at most locations Friday". http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDJAN&max=51
Lake Charles and New Orleans NWS Offices are in agreement with the cool down late this week.
The forecasted cool front, if and when it appears, could provide a 'block' to any tropical systems. Hypothetically this could result in a barrier to storms in the Central and Western GOM. Leaving Florida and possibly Alabama open.
Worst case scenario, similar to Charley '04. Where a weak cool front deflected/ turned Charley prematurely into the Punta Gorda area. Presently we have NO organized Tropical systems. And here's to hoping that last until 01 November.
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