That little system in the central carribean looks pretty good to me. Isn't it the same one that was going through the lower islands last week? Looks like building convection and some ridging over it thanks to that weak ULL moving west over the Florida straights.. The METS here have been suggesting a GOM low later in the period too. The trough from Rita and the front will be hanging around to be sure. If as HF says the SOI will become favorable and as Clark stated a few days ago the MJO will reinvigorate, we may be seeing things go in these areas sooner than we like. I hope not as I am leaving for about ten days this weekend, and I don't want that uncertainty.
I think the season will halt abruptly around the middle of the month.
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