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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropic Watch
      Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM

I agree. From what I have seen this year, once a LLC gets going, in general they seem to be pretty tenacious, even with day after day of shear ripping convection apart, or even when it has had a chance to be organized, but shear then pulls the upper levels partially to the side and the LLC is somewhat (or even mostly) exposed.

Nature has her own schedule and she's not as impatient as us, so the waiting game continues. It's almost into the area of low shear, so by tonight or tomorrow it ought to get its opportunity to organize, and if things don't come together then, that is probably that.

One good thing is that it looks like the probabilites lean towards a Yucatan or Tex Mex directon. One thing we really don't want for the remainder of this year is a system coming up north from the Carribean from the western end of Cuba (either rounding it as Camille did, or going straight over), hitting the loop current N of Cuba, and then going N to hit the very deep pool of the loop current that remains S of LA.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 20 Forms in the Caribbean, TD 19 Out at Sea MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:56 PM
. * * development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired teal61   Sat Oct 01 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired TDW   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:31 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired weatherwatcher999   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired tpratch   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:33 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:34 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:42 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Stan 19 and the models Bloodstar   Sun Oct 02 2005 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Stan 19 and the models Rich B   Sun Oct 02 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:38 PM
. * * TD 20 Jamiewx   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Hootowl   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Steve H1   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SMOKE   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Clark   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch stevie   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:08 AM
. * * 90/99 HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Big Kahuna   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:34 PM
. * * So many Features.... so little time! Bloodstar   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: So many Features.... so little time! Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:34 PM
. * * TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Ed in Va   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Susan in Jupiter, FL   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 andy1tom   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W Ron Basso   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 scottsvb   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 *DELETED* Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:03 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch damejune2   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HURRICANELONNY   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 02:48 PM
. * * NOT YET !!! Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Rabbit   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SirCane   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Fletch   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:50 AM

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