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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropic Watch
      Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM

that batch of convection/sfc trough being enhanced by an upper low near 23/57 may also be the precursor thing i was talking about last night. the little low being masked by an upper low out near 29/71 also may be the thing that'll get low pressure started. later ukmet runs favor the thing doug is talking about... nogaps still sees my feature today but not as well. either or, the pattern wants there to be a storm approaching the east coast next week.
i'm guessing recon has been through the low in the nw caribbean already, and no vortex. it's probably still too broad. even though convection is firing near the center, it keeps migrating northward away from the formative system. overall the last three or four days it has slowly but consistently improved, so pretty soon it should cross the threshold and become a classified system. been saying that for two days now, but the basic synoptic reasoning for it hasn't changed in that time.
headline for this thread could just as easily have been 'waiting on the tropics.'
HF 1747z29september

well, clark just straightened that out. i was guessing recon had already run through, but that was presumptuous. could somebody give me a link to that site that plots the recon obs? -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 29 2005 01:49 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 20 Forms in the Caribbean, TD 19 Out at Sea MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:56 PM
. * * development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired teal61   Sat Oct 01 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired TDW   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:31 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired weatherwatcher999   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired tpratch   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:33 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:34 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:42 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Stan 19 and the models Bloodstar   Sun Oct 02 2005 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Stan 19 and the models Rich B   Sun Oct 02 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:38 PM
. * * TD 20 Jamiewx   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Hootowl   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Steve H1   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SMOKE   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Clark   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch stevie   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:08 AM
. * * 90/99 HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Big Kahuna   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:34 PM
. * * So many Features.... so little time! Bloodstar   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: So many Features.... so little time! Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:34 PM
. * * TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Ed in Va   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Susan in Jupiter, FL   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 andy1tom   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W Ron Basso   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 scottsvb   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 *DELETED* Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:03 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch damejune2   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HURRICANELONNY   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 02:48 PM
. * * NOT YET !!! Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Rabbit   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SirCane   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Fletch   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:50 AM

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