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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: development-impaired
      Sat Oct 01 2005 11:08 AM

Looks like it is a race to see which system can claim the name Stan first. TD 19 is running out of time and may not even make it to tropical storm status. It doesn't look that great on satellite at the moment. TD 20 also has a limited window in the short-term, though it appears it will have another opportunity in the Gulf in a couple of days. Most of the model guidance seems to keep this system well south of the Texas/Mexico border, but things could obviously change.

Interesting to read in the discussion for TD 20 that frictional convergence over land may actually help the currently broad circulation tighten up, allowing it to strengthen more quickly over the Bay of Campeche when it re-emerges. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sat Oct 01 2005 11:12 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 20 Forms in the Caribbean, TD 19 Out at Sea MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 01 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: TD 19 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:56 PM
. * * development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired teal61   Sat Oct 01 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired TDW   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired ParrishNStPeteFL   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:31 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired weatherwatcher999   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired tpratch   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired HanKFranK   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:33 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:34 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Storm Hunter   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:42 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Rubén   Sun Oct 02 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Stan 19 and the models Bloodstar   Sun Oct 02 2005 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Stan 19 and the models Rich B   Sun Oct 02 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired Steve H1   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:12 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired Margie   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: development-impaired typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 01 2005 12:38 PM
. * * TD 20 Jamiewx   Sat Oct 01 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: development-impaired GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 01 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Hootowl   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Steve H1   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SMOKE   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Clark   Thu Sep 29 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Beaumont, TX   Fri Sep 30 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch stevie   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:08 AM
. * * 90/99 HanKFranK   Fri Sep 30 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 Big Kahuna   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 01:34 PM
. * * So many Features.... so little time! Bloodstar   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: So many Features.... so little time! Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:34 PM
. * * TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Ed in Va   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Susan in Jupiter, FL   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 andy1tom   Fri Sep 30 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun MapMaster   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Clark   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Just for fun GuppieGrouper   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W Ron Basso   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 20N-60W NONAME   Fri Sep 30 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 scottsvb   Fri Sep 30 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 90/99 *DELETED* Margie   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: 90/99 typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:03 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: latest TWO Thunderbird12   Fri Sep 30 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch damejune2   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch HURRICANELONNY   Fri Sep 30 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Tazmanian93   Fri Sep 30 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch doug   Thu Sep 29 2005 02:48 PM
. * * NOT YET !!! Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch sara33   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Rabbit   Thu Sep 29 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch SirCane   Thu Sep 29 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Margie   Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Fletch   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Wingman51   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropic Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 29 2005 09:50 AM

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