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The discussion was funny! "THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS"

True that NHC also mentions favorable outflow (really favorable!), low wind shear, and warm SSTs, once TD#20 gets into the GOM...but consider that there is really dry air there right now, and deep water temps not as favorable for a slow-moving storm. The best water is what it has been moving over right now. Even with lesson learned from Rita about the importance of very good outlfow, it would be surprising if this thing could make it up to Cat 2 before landfall in Mex.

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So, you think Mexico? Granted, both global and tropical based model camps suggest so and that is also the HPC solution... But, I find it intriguing that the models have had a left track bias to Katrina and subsequently Rita, too. This is important to me because both hurricanes developed more earnestly once the mid/U/A ridging over the E 1/3 of NA flexed into greater amplification. We see in the global based models over the last few days, a prediction for another positive anomaly slated to emerge over the lower Ohio Valley and spanning the greater aspect of the easter 1/3 of the contiguous US. In concernt, up underneath the tropical disturbance in question is finally labled a depression.

If there is any skill to using analog predictive tools this seasons behavior as a whole makes one weary of latching onto the left track. It is conceivable to me that we will have a slow moving system that averages a "slight" N component along its track, which integrated over time might mean that S Texas is not off the hook. Granted, no one has claimed that can't happen - this is by no mean argumentative - just to enlighten to another possibility, one that I believe has merti based on trends this later summer and autumn.

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