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Well trying to follow what you're saying -- I don't see how, with all the factors that play into increasing intensity, you can single out the ridging as being of special significance, for Katrina and Rita. Then, you didn't explain how that translates into a change in the track to the right of the model consensus.
The point I was making is pattern similarities... For whatever reason (and I leave that up to your keen mind to speculate) the pattern we've seen so persistently during this summer is statistically concurrent with the creation and movement through the GOM of these tropical disturbances...
Can't knock consistency...
It may indeed be merely coincidence but...here we are again with that same old pattern and a yet again, another GOM (or appr region) disturbance.
Trends are Meteorology 101 when it comes to track reasoning (not just for tropical systems, for all "modeled" atmospheric phenomenon)
Having said all that, 'What about the ridge substantiates more intensity'? I could speculate and suggest that it temporarily weakens whatever westerly shearing components between 20 and 30N latittude, which might prevail in the absence of such ridge amplification, but the subject needs more study. As far as 'Why a N component', my feeling in the matter is that the heights over the data sparse region of Old Mexico may have been and still are tending to be higher than models are seeing - again, date to corroborate this hypothesis? If so, the models would indeed assume a left bias, which is then corrected for in the shorter terms only at such times as a the N adjustments begin to verify and the data makes into subsequent (i.e., shorter lead-time) model runs.
In any event, I would not be surprised that just as other system in the GOM this late summer and autumn have behaved, this system ends up a little N of current thinking beyond 60 hours. Especially considering that the 11am advisory has repositioned the system a farther N of the previous estimate; a more N starting point will need to be conserved down the line.
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