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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: development-impaired
Sun Oct 02 2005 04:26 AM

they aren't going to upgrade 20 without strong evidence. there's radar coverage from cancun, the buoy, and whatever other recon they can get out there. the nhc will call it conservatively; for that reason i don't expect it to be upgraded before landfall... unless there's a 34kt wind or something suggestive of it, or maybe just a really sharpened satellite appearance.
out in the east atlantic 19 has a better look to it than earlier, but i agree with their keeping it a depression. the low level turning you can see in the exposed part of the cloud field isn't all that impressive. long term prog isn't a great one for this system as shear and cooler ssts should start killing it in a few days if the shear doesn't kill it outright or keep it in check in the short term. it may pull a lee and briefly make storm status, but it'll only amount to a statistic.
anyhow, 20 will be entering the BoC and all those comments about not being sure where it goes in a few days are well-founded. a lot of globals want to shove it into mexico by default, but the steering ridge that is building to the north right now may be gone by the time the storm is nearing mexico. some of the guidance stalls it and pushes it back to the east or northeast later in the coming week. there is also the issue of what else may be forming over there.. some of the globals suggest another system will try to develop in its wake by the middle of the week. on top of all that there's still a shot at something trying to form off the east coast. it wouldn't make sense for all of this to happen, so some variation of the mentioned events should take place. whether 20 goes into mexico or not, there's a general consensus on a system or wannabe system being centered somewhere between the yucatan channel and the outer banks by later next week.
still interested in the hybrid system near 25/35. models still tracking it far to the west. that's another statistic if anything comes of it.
expect weirdness as october is usually the month for such things.
HF 0426z02october

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 20 Forms in the Caribbean, TD 19 Out at Sea	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2005 04:26 AM
Re: TD 19 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic	weatherwatcher999	Sat Oct 01 2005 01:56 AM
development-impaired	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 01 2005 04:00 AM
Re: development-impaired	teal61	Sat Oct 01 2005 07:11 AM
Re: development-impaired	ParrishNStPeteFL	Sat Oct 01 2005 01:02 PM
Re: development-impaired	TDW	Sat Oct 01 2005 01:21 PM
Re: development-impaired	ParrishNStPeteFL	Sat Oct 01 2005 01:36 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 02:02 PM
Re: development-impaired	GuppieGrouper	Sat Oct 01 2005 02:29 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 02:45 PM
Re: development-impaired	Thunderbird12	Sat Oct 01 2005 03:08 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 03:31 PM
Re: development-impaired	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 01 2005 03:49 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 03:57 PM
Re: development-impaired	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 01 2005 04:45 PM
Re: development-impaired	Steve H1	Sat Oct 01 2005 06:45 PM
Re: development-impaired	GuppieGrouper	Sat Oct 01 2005 10:12 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 11:52 PM
Re: development-impaired	Steve H1	Sun Oct 02 2005 12:15 AM
Re: development-impaired	weatherwatcher999	Sun Oct 02 2005 02:12 AM
Re: development-impaired	tpratch	Sun Oct 02 2005 02:24 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 02:41 AM
Re: development-impaired	HanKFranK	Sun Oct 02 2005 04:26 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 05:24 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 05:33 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 06:26 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 06:34 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 06:50 AM
Re: development-impaired	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 02 2005 06:59 AM
Re: development-impaired	danielw	Sun Oct 02 2005 06:42 AM
Re: development-impaired	Rubén	Sun Oct 02 2005 07:02 AM
Re: development-impaired	Rubén	Sun Oct 02 2005 07:30 AM
Stan 19 and the models	Bloodstar	Sun Oct 02 2005 08:35 AM
Re: Stan 19 and the models	Rich B	Sun Oct 02 2005 09:30 AM
Re: development-impaired	Steve H1	Sat Oct 01 2005 11:12 PM
Re: development-impaired	GuppieGrouper	Sat Oct 01 2005 11:42 PM
Re: development-impaired	Margie	Sat Oct 01 2005 05:51 PM
Re: development-impaired	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 01 2005 05:21 PM
Re: development-impaired	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 01 2005 05:26 PM
Re: development-impaired	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 01 2005 04:38 PM
TD 20	Jamiewx	Sat Oct 01 2005 02:36 PM
Re: development-impaired	GuppieGrouper	Sat Oct 01 2005 01:17 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	doug	Thu Sep 29 2005 02:11 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	sara33	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:03 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	doug	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:53 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Wingman51	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:59 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Hootowl	Thu Sep 29 2005 05:56 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	doug	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:44 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Steve H1	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:56 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	doug	Thu Sep 29 2005 05:04 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 29 2005 05:58 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	SMOKE	Fri Sep 30 2005 12:11 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 29 2005 05:47 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Clark	Thu Sep 29 2005 05:39 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Margie	Thu Sep 29 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Tazmanian93	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:15 AM
Re: Tropic Watch	HanKFranK	Fri Sep 30 2005 05:41 AM
Re: Tropic Watch	Beaumont, TX	Fri Sep 30 2005 01:11 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	stevie	Fri Sep 30 2005 02:02 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 02:08 PM
90/99	HanKFranK	Fri Sep 30 2005 02:33 PM
Re: 90/99	Margie	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:12 PM
Re: 90/99	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:25 PM
Re: 90/99	Big Kahuna	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:39 PM
Re: 90/99	MapMaster	Fri Sep 30 2005 05:34 PM
So many Features.... so little time!	Bloodstar	Fri Sep 30 2005 06:06 PM
Re: So many Features.... so little time!	Clark	Fri Sep 30 2005 06:34 PM
TD 19	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:19 PM
Re: TD 19	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:26 PM
Re: TD 19	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:28 PM
Re: TD 19	Susan in Jupiter, FL	Sat Oct 01 2005 12:05 AM
Re: TD 19	andy1tom	Sat Oct 01 2005 12:40 AM
Re: Just for fun	MapMaster	Fri Sep 30 2005 09:04 PM
Re: Just for fun	Clark	Fri Sep 30 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Just for fun	Margie	Fri Sep 30 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Just for fun	GuppieGrouper	Fri Sep 30 2005 11:00 PM
Re: TD 19	NONAME	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:32 PM
Re: 20N-60W	Ron Basso	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:03 PM
Re: 20N-60W	NONAME	Fri Sep 30 2005 08:17 PM
Re: 90/99	scottsvb	Fri Sep 30 2005 06:00 PM
Re: 90/99	typhoon_tip	Fri Sep 30 2005 03:45 PM
Re: 90/99 DELETED	Margie	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:00 PM
Re: 90/99	typhoon_tip	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:03 PM
latest TWO	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 03:38 PM
Re: latest TWO	Thunderbird12	Fri Sep 30 2005 03:48 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	damejune2	Fri Sep 30 2005 03:21 AM
Re: Tropic Watch	HURRICANELONNY	Fri Sep 30 2005 11:46 AM
Re: Tropic Watch	Tazmanian93	Fri Sep 30 2005 04:08 AM
Re: Tropic Watch	doug	Thu Sep 29 2005 06:48 PM
NOT YET !!!	Wingman51	Thu Sep 29 2005 08:09 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	sara33	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Rabbit	Thu Sep 29 2005 04:10 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	SirCane	Thu Sep 29 2005 02:31 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 29 2005 03:01 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 29 2005 03:35 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Margie	Thu Sep 29 2005 03:00 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Fletch	Thu Sep 29 2005 01:15 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Wingman51	Thu Sep 29 2005 01:36 PM
Re: Tropic Watch	Thunderbird12	Thu Sep 29 2005 01:50 PM

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