There is a new investigation up for the disturbance near the Bahamas - 92 L. Jackie, the disturbance east of the Bahamas is a tropical wave with at least a mid-level circulation within it. The NHC forecasts gradually favorable condtions for development over the next two days. A large high pressure system to the north of the system will steer it generally west over the next 2-3 days. The NAM model predicts development of a tropical cyclone prior to it moving across the S FL peninsula while the GFS and other global models keep it an open wave. However, once it reaches the SE GOM, nearly all the global models develop it into a closed circulation. The system will likely meander in the GOM perhaps reaching the central GOM before being picked up by a deepening east coast trough and cold front progged to dive SE into the northern GOM this weekend, causing it to be steered back toward the FL peninsula. While the details are still not in focus, this one definitely bears watching as Gulf temps are still plenty warm for development.
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