19 is history since yesterday. there's still a low level swirl out in the open atlantic.. no consequence. sorta blew it with stan. i wasn't counting on the ridging forcing it sw, but that's where all the models are clustered and have been for a couple days. official takes it very close to the population center of veracruz, so they'd better get ready. 91L is slated to replicate the general motion of td 19 and doesn't have much in the way of prospects. hostile environment ahead. 92L i'm not sure what to make of. can see the upper low and the displaced surface trough. there's a long wind-shift line running southeast of all that and i'm not of the opinion that something can't form further back along it. area north of hispaniola looks downright favorable (low level convergence, ridging present aloft). modeling as a group likes the feature near the bahamas right now and develops a closed low as it pushes past south florida into the gulf late tomorrow/early wed. i'm not sure if this will play out as shown or not. it's been mostly ignored, but there's another small trough max/low east of hatteras that's been persisting for days. not writing it off either. there's almost definitely a system or two in this mess. HF 1711z03october
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