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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 365
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity
      Mon Oct 03 2005 04:47 PM

It sounds like you're referring to the tropical models (BAMM, BAMD, LBAR, A98E), a graphical depiction of which is on the flhurricane.com front page (Skeetobite's map, I believe). If so, I've pasted the latest run below, which also shows the SHPS and Decay-SHPS intensity guidance, but take those with a huge grain of salt. In addition to potential inaccuracies of the models' handling of systems, those runs assume that a 30kt depression centered at 23.3/75.1 already exists. That obviously is not the case. Even if an organized warm-core system develops (a big "if"), the location of it and its initial intensity likely will greatly change the output from the tropical models.

As for other models, which of course also have limitations but several of which are programmed to attempt to predict the genesis of systems, look back at the last few pages; other users have posted links to several of them.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1800 051004 0600 051004 1800 051005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.1W 23.0N 76.5W 23.2N 77.8W 23.9N 79.1W
BAMM 23.3N 75.1W 23.3N 77.0W 23.6N 78.6W 24.4N 80.1W
A98E 23.3N 75.1W 23.5N 77.4W 23.7N 79.2W 24.2N 80.7W
LBAR 23.3N 75.1W 23.4N 77.0W 23.7N 79.0W 24.4N 81.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 1800 051007 1800 051008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 80.4W 28.6N 83.3W 31.5N 84.0W 37.6N 74.0W
BAMM 25.6N 81.4W 28.4N 83.7W 30.0N 85.0W 32.6N 80.7W
A98E 25.3N 81.9W 27.4N 83.0W 30.3N 82.3W 35.5N 73.7W
LBAR 25.0N 83.3W 27.1N 86.3W 28.8N 88.4W 32.5N 86.0W
SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 80KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 57KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 75.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 68.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Oct 03 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar Sheeper   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity hurricane expert   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity oil trader   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ed in Va   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Turning just north of PR? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Stan Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: gfs? Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Models and other things Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Stan Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Stan dave foster   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Stan RubĂ©n   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Stan dave foster   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Stan Random Chaos   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Stan HanKFranK   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Stan Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:31 AM
. * * latest adv. on stan HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: latest adv. on stan meranto   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:38 AM
. * * GFS Ryan   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Stan bobbutts   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Stan Genesis   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Stan Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Bloodstar   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Models and other things Hootowl   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: gfs? Ryan   Mon Oct 03 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L a TD? MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity twizted sizter   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:39 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 02:15 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ron Basso   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Susan in Jupiter, FL   Mon Oct 03 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity ParrishNStPeteFL   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Brad in Miami   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Storm Hunter   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:18 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Clark   Mon Oct 03 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity crpeavley   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity crpeavley   Mon Oct 03 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Oct 03 2005 04:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity sara33   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity MapMaster   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity HanKFranK   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Hootowl   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity scottsvb   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Navy website zmdz01   Mon Oct 03 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Rabbit   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity emackl   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Rabbit   Mon Oct 03 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Bahama Baby Wingman51   Mon Oct 03 2005 11:16 AM
. * * 70W 25N Beach   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: 70W 25N NewWatcher   Mon Oct 03 2005 08:29 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Magic Hat   Sun Oct 02 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Margie   Sun Oct 02 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Ryan   Sun Oct 02 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Big Red Machine   Mon Oct 03 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 02 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Cindi   Sun Oct 02 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity dkpcb   Sun Oct 02 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity HanKFranK   Sun Oct 02 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity jmk818   Sun Oct 02 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 02 2005 12:13 PM

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