TS Stan and Other Basin Activity

I'm gonna come along now and say that pretty much all of you are right on the location of the "center" of 92L -- how's that for being ambiguous?

There appears to be some broad turning near Cat Island in the Bahamas, or approximately the position Storm Hunter referenced. However, this is likely a surface reflection of a sharp but narrow upper-level trough with an embedded weak upper-level low in about the same location. Whether or not it is directly associated with an upper-low or not, conditions in this are are unfavorable for development due to strong northerly shear (partially along the west side of the narrow trough, partially due to the outflow from Stan).

The area toward the east, however, is a much more favorable region for development. There is strong diffluence (divergent winds) aloft with an upper-level ridge building in across the area. While there does not appear to be any surface center within the midst of the large convective field across the region from well east of Daytona Beach SE-ward to Puerto Rico, there are strong low-level easterly winds at low levels on the north side of this area and weak overall winds on the south side of this area. Given how one sustained convective burst and the pressure falls that are associated with such an event can lead to the development of a surface circulation, I'd say it's a good bet that something ultimately forms within the midst of that cloud mass.

The precise location of the circulation formation has little impact upon the ultimate track -- west-northwest, then northwest -- but does impact what areas will see what weather from this system. Overall, Florida is in for at least a good bit of rain through the late part of the week and into the weekend...possibly more depending on what happens. My best guess is that something forms in the midst of the convection currently near 24N/70-72W and moves toward the WNW toward the state of Florida over the next couple of days. How much of something forms is yet to be determined.

The setup for something to form is quite similar to how Katrina, Rita, and Franklin formed over the course of this season with an upper-low and the associated diffluence aloft interacting with a tropical wave to its northeast; as the upper-low weakens and/or moves out, tropical development can begin in earnest. The ultimate track is likely to be somewhere between Katrina and Franklin's tracks -- i.e. west-northwest across the state of Florida, perhaps into the northern Gulf S of the Fl. Panhandle -- with intensity a crapshoot at this point. It could be a weak vortex that never reaches depression status, or it could be a minimal hurricane. Best bet is for something in the middle.

We'll watch it over the coming days -- Stan, too, for whatever happens with it as it strengthens in the Bay of Campeche -- and keep the updates coming.

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