Bahamas Tropical Wave and Tropical Depression Stan

yeah, stan took a shortcut. good thing it did.. if it had remained over water and kept deepening like it was...
anyhow a lot of the models are keeping stan's remnants close enough to the BoC that it sort of 'redevelops' back over water. i don't quite buy into that... as the ctr will probably spend the next couple of days trying to cross mexico. whatever (if anything) tries to pop in behind it would probably be a new, wake system.
i'm thinking that calling the area from the bahamas down to puerto rico '92L' is an oversimpification. the actual low with 92L is around andros island, the big bahama island southeast of miami. it doesn't exactly have any convection at the center, but some really heavy stuff to the east. there's some shearing going on, but the trough is backing westward faster and you can see some diffluence in the convection to the north... so it ought to let up or become more supportive for convection. 92L should start actually developing sometime today. may be that another meso-low takes over in the convective region or that the convection finally builds to the center. either way, ought to be a tropical cyclone by some time tomorrow.. and very close to or over south florida. the rest of the convective area that 92L is a part of has potential to start trouble as well. note the weak low level turning north of hispaniola and the mid-level low near the virgin islands. either of these is a troublemaker if it becomes better defined. my take is that 92 will enter the eastern gulf as a broad, sloppy system, and get stuck as another low develops to the east and rides nw on its back flank... curving up the coast ahead of the trough coming later in the week (as advertised by more than half of the globals). from there 92 may follow suit or just drag around the gulf.... hard to say as it could be interacting with whatever is in stan's wake. centered around the weekend a trough is set in the northeast, but that pulls out in a lot of the modeling next week and if anything else is trying to come up it can get blocked by resurgent ridging. call it a week of unsettled weather for florida and the atlantic coastal plain.
worth noting that old td 19's remnant low is bursting convection and moving west under the ridge... behind the piece of that hybrid advertised last week that came west... and the little low from invest 91L the other day that is also coming in behind it. lot of the globals have been tracking the energy from this set of features westward and showing a low developing out of it near bermuda late in the week. they're firing convection again because an upper trough is deepening to the west (in the wake of the ridging just east of 92L) and is causing the flow to become diffluent over them, allowing some ridging to build. it's not a strongly probable thing, but it looks to me like that mess is still trying to use up another of the few remaining atlantic names. in my book the names end at wilma.. calling a tropical storm 'alpha' is desperation.
HF 1429z04october

hmmm.. ten year opal anniversary. i was 14 when that happened. time is flying.

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